Publications

Authors:

Chick, Stephen; Forster, Martin; Pertile, Paolo

Title:

A Bayesian Decision-Theoretic Model of Sequential Experimentation with Delayed Response

Year:

2017

Type of item:

Articolo in Rivista

Tipologia ANVUR:

Articolo su rivista

Language:

Inglese

Format:

A Stampa

Referee:

Sì

Name of journal:

JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY. SERIES B, STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY

ISSN of journal:

1467-9868

N° Volume:

79

Number or Folder:

5

Page numbers:

1439-1462

Keyword:

Bayesian inference, Clinical trials, Delayed observations, Health economics, Sequential experimentation

Short description of contents:

We propose a Bayesian decision-theoretic model of a fully sequential experiment in which the real-valued primary end point is observed with delay. The goal is to identify the sequential experiment which maximises the expected benefits of technology adoption decisions, minus sampling costs. The solution yields a unified policy defining the optimal 'do not experiment'/'fixed sample size experiment'/'sequential experiment' regions and optimal stopping boundaries for sequential sampling, as a function of the prior mean benefit and the size of the delay. The model can also value the expected benefits accruing to study units and the fixed costs of switching from control to treatment. We apply the model to the field of medical statistics, using data from published clinical trials.

Product ID:

94824

Handle IRIS:

11562/954393

Last Modified:

November 12, 2022

Bibliographic citation:

Chick, Stephen; Forster, Martin; Pertile, Paolo, A Bayesian Decision-Theoretic Model of Sequential Experimentation with Delayed Response «JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY. SERIES B, STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY» , vol. 79 , n. 5 , 2017 , pp. 1439-1462

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