The project arises from the need to strengthen preparedness and response capabilities for future pandemic emergencies through the development of an innovative large-scale molecular screening strategy. The aim is to promptly identify infected individuals, including those who are asymptomatic, through systematic, accessible, and sustainable PCR testing. In the event of a pandemic, periodic screening campaigns targeting large segments of the population could contribute to epidemiological surveillance and infection containment, reducing the need for restrictive measures associated with high economic and social costs.
The project brings together diagnostic, epidemiological, and economic expertise to evaluate a mass testing strategy under scenarios characterized by different levels of infectivity and prevalence. Comparison with alternative strategies will make it possible to estimate expected costs and outcomes and identify the conditions under which PCR4ALL could be cost-effective. The consortium includes the University of Verona, through its Department of Economics and Department of Management, KU Leuven (Belgium), the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (Germany), and IrsiCaixa (Barcelona, Spain).
The economic evaluation conducted by the Verona research unit falls within the framework of Health Technology Assessment (HTA), with a particular focus on early HTA. This approach considers clinical, economic, organizational, and technological aspects from the early stages of technology development, before the completion of clinical trials and potential market introduction. In this way, the analysis can support development and investment decisions and identify, at an early stage, the factors that may influence technology adoption. The Verona unit is responsible for the economic evaluation of the innovative large-scale molecular testing strategy. Through the development of decision-analytic economic models integrated with epidemiological scenarios, the research examines the costs, benefits, and sustainability of adopting the technology compared with alternative pandemic containment strategies. The evaluation considers both the healthcare system perspective and the broader societal perspective, including direct healthcare costs, productivity losses, and the economic consequences of restrictive measures. Special attention is devoted to identifying the epidemiological, technological, and organizational parameters that influence the cost-effectiveness of mass testing, with the aim of providing quantitative tools to support investment decisions and public health policymaking.
