Valerie Mueller (Arizona State University) on "Temporary Migration and Climate Variation in Eastern Africa"

Understanding how climate variability affects migration is crucial to adaptation policy design. Combining high-resolution climate data with panel microdata on migration, labor participation, and demographics, we assess temporary migration responses to local temperature and precipitation anomalies in four East African countries. Climate impacts are most pronounced in urban areas, with a one standard deviation temperature increase and rainfall decrease leading to respective 10 and 24 percent declines in migration relation to mean observed values. Evidence from other labor market outcomes suggests that the reduced urban migration is due to a decline in outside options for urban migrations rather than an increase in alternative urban employment. Conversely, reduced urban opportunities during periods of extreme climate may limit the potential for rural migration to serve as an adaptation tool.