Long-run uncertainty, asset prices and the real economy

Long-run uncertainty, asset prices and the real economy
Speaker:  Federico Bandi (with Andrea Tamoni) - Carey Business School, Johns Hopkins University
  Tuesday, January 16, 2018 at 12:30 PM Polo Santa Marta, Via Cantarane 24, Sala Vaona
Higher long-run economic uncertainty predicts higher future long-run excess market returns. Over a 10-year horizon, the joint use of long-run uncertainty and the dividend-to-price ratio leads to a predictive R2  around 80%, half of which is imputable to long-run uncertainty. This return predictability can only be reconciled with the ability of long-run uncertainty to predict future real dividend growth (with a positive sign), future real short-term rates (with a negative sign), or both. We show that higher long-run uncertainty forecasts lower inflation rates and, largely through this channel, higher real dividend growth.

Programme Director
Roberto Renò

Publication date
December 1, 2017