Brown Bag Seminar: A GARCH model with two volatility components and two driving factors

Speaker:  Christian Tezza - ABN AMRO Bank
  Tuesday, February 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM Aula Vaona

We introduce a novel GARCH model that integrates two sources of uncertainty to better capture the rich, multi-component dynamics often observed in the volatility of financial assets. This model provides a quasi closed-form representation of the characteristic function for future log-returns, from which semi-analytical formulas for option pricing can be derived. A theoretical analysis is conducted to establish sufficient conditions for strict stationarity and geometric ergodicity, while also obtaining the continuous-time diffusion limit of the model. Empirical evaluations, conducted both in-sample and out-of-sample using S&P500 time series data, show that our model outperforms widely used single-factor models in predicting returns and option prices. The code for estimating the model, as well as for computing option prices, is made accessible in MATLAB language.


Programme Director
Alessandro Barbazeni

External reference
Publication date
February 12, 2026

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